Analysis Archive

October 17, 2024

The Wagner Group’s Little Black Book: Decoding Command and Control of Russia’s Irregular Forces

The Future Frontlines team details the intricate command structure and operations of the Wagner Group, revealing its deep ties to Russian state officials and its involvement in global conflicts and alleged war crimes across multiple continents from 2014 to 2023.

October 2, 2024

Paramilitary Paper Trails: Mapping the Wagner Group’s Ties to Russia with Personnel Data

Future Frontlines analyzes 13,000+ Wagner Group personnel records, exposing the paramilitary's structure and close ties to the Russian state.

September 30, 2024

The Wagner Group Legacy: Reshaping Russia’s Shadow Armies

A year after Yevgeny Prigozhin's death, the Future Frontlines team analyzes how the Kremlin responded to a threat of its own creation—reasserting control over irregular forces, purging the military establishment, and balancing resource exploitation in the Middle East and Africa with the demands of its war in Ukraine.

June 24, 2024

Can the Wagner Group Be Prosecuted Post-Prigozhin?

This brief analyzes the legal challenges and potential avenues for prosecuting Wagner Group members for atrocity crimes, considering international and domestic jurisdictions.

February 22, 2024

Targeting the Wagner Group: How the U.S. Can Strengthen Sanctions Against Russia

This brief examines the shortcomings of current U.S. sanctions against Russian paramilitaries and proposes strategies for more effective targeting of Russian irregulars.

August 25, 2023

A Fitting Coda for the Wagner Group

Candace Rondeaux analyzes the aftermath of Yevgeny Prigozhin's death, discussing its implications for the Wagner Group's future, Putin's regime stability, and Russia's military strategies, while reflecting on Prigozhin's complex legacy and its impact on global geopolitics.

February 22, 2023

Putin’s Stealth Mobilization: Russian Irregulars and the Wagner Group’s Shadow Command Structure

Data analysis reveals the Wagner Group to be a likely front for a quasi-governmental collective of active reservists with strong ties to Russian special forces.

February 16, 2023

Rebranding the Russian Way of War: The Wagner Group’s Viral Social Media Campaign

This report analyzes the Wagner Group's explosive growth on social media platforms, particularly VKontakte, examining how these online communities have become crucial for recruitment, propaganda, and mobilizing ultranationalist support for Russia's war efforts in Ukraine.

February 16, 2023

Building the Wagner Group Brand

This report explains how—and why—Russian oligarch Yevgeny Prigozhin built a battlefield rumor into a global brand.

February 14, 2023

A Field Guide to Wagner Group Bloggers: Russia’s New Mercenary Media Elite

This report profiles key Wagner-linked ultranationalist bloggers and their role in stoking pro-war fervor.

February 13, 2023

Chasing the Wagner Group: Why It’s So Hard to Get a Handle on Putin’s Ghost Army

This report investigates the Wagner Group's multifaceted operations, exploring its deceptive tactics, social media influence, and financial networks while assessing its impact on Russian military strategy and global politics.

January 26, 2022

Wagner Group Contingent Rusich on the Move Again

Candace Rondeaux, Ben Dalton, and Jonathan Deer analyze evidence suggesting the Wagner-affiliated Rusich group is preparing to re-enter Ukraine, examining their social media, training, and government links, while noting the group's violent history and potential to escalate tensions.